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Management Report

Sales and Earnings Forecast

Bayer Group

The strategic alignment of the Bayer Group allows us to look forward to 2009 with relative confidence despite the current financial and economic crisis. The fact that the less cyclical life-science businesses account for more than 70% of our sales is paying off.
For the markets relevant to our HealthCare business we predict largely steady growth of between 3% and 5%. For the CropScience markets we are assuming moderate growth of 2% to 3%. In the main sectors of importance for our MaterialScience business, however, we anticipate a very difficult year marked by a great deal of uncertainty. We have budgeted for an exchange rate of US$ 1.35 to the euro.
For HealthCare and CropScience we expect a gratifying trend in 2009, with growth in sales and EBITDA before special items. At MaterialScience the start to the year has been even weaker than expected, and we therefore anticipate an extremely difficult year for this subgroup, with a severe drop in sales and earnings. In this negative scenario for MaterialScience we are nevertheless confident of limiting the decline in Group EBITDA before special items to about 5%. Group sales would probably then be in the region of €32 billion.
Should there be a tangible recovery in our MaterialScience business in the short term, Group EBITDA before special items could match the very high level of 2008 or even post a slight increase.
We have budgeted for special charges in the region of €250 million related to our ongoing restructuring programs.
Our capital expenditure budget for 2009 is €1.5 billion. We expect to record some €2.8 billion in depreciation and amortization, including €1.3 billion in depreciation of property, plant and equipment. Research and development expenses are planned to rise to about €2.9 billion.
We expect to reduce net debt toward €10 billion in 2009, helped by the conversion of the mandatory convertible bond into equity upon maturation in June 2009 and an improvement in net cash flow. This forecast does not take into account any possible portfolio changes.
We are not currently issuing any sales or earnings guidance beyond 2009 in view of the considerable uncertainty as to the future development of the global economy.

Bayer HealthCare

In 2009 HealthCare plans to achieve currency-adjusted growth rates ahead of the market average in all divisions. We aim to further improve the EBITDA margin before special items toward 28%.

Bayer CropScience

CropScience plans to continue expanding sales in a generally favorable market environment. We aim to maintain the EBITDA margin before special items at the high level of about 25%.

Bayer MaterialScience

The MaterialScience business is greatly impeded by the global recession. We expect sales and EBITDA before special items to show a further decline in the first quarter of 2009 compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, which included a comparatively steady October. For the full year we predict a severe drop in sales and EBITDA before special items.
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